Despite ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and mixed economic signals, retail sales are expected to grow in 2026, according to NRF’s 2026 retail sales forecast.
NRF expects retail sales to increase 4.4% this year, reaching $5.6 trillion, based on its definition of core retail sales, which excludes autos, gas, and restaurants. The forecast, developed with Oxford Economics, is stronger than the 10-year average growth rate of 3.6%.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said consumer spending remained steady in 2025, even as broader economic conditions fluctuated, and is expected to continue supporting growth in 2026.
“Renewed tensions in the Middle East and the ripple effects across global markets are adding more uncertainty to the economic landscape,” said NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews. “While the geopolitical environment and ongoing trade policy challenges warrant close attention, we remain optimistic that the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy will support continued stability in the year ahead.”
NRF said higher-income households are expected to drive most of the growth, with consumer spending getting an early-year boost from larger tax refunds tied to the Working Families Tax Cut Act. Inflation is expected to stay elevated through midyear before easing later in 2026.
Retail sales reached a record $5.4 trillion in 2025, up nearly 4% from the previous year. Looking ahead, NRF said the combination of low unemployment, steady wage growth, and tax-related stimulus should help support continued spending, even as uncertainty remains.
Visit Logistics Management for more coverage of the NRF’s retail forecast
https://www.supplychain247.com/article/nrf-retail-sales-forecast-2026-growth