Ahmad al-Sharaa – Can he change/will he change?: As touched upon when HTS and Ahmad al-Sharaa overthrew the Assad regime in Syria, there are/were concerns related to what it meant that Syria was being led by a former al-Qaida commander who was wanted by the U.S. The question many had was – could/would/will he shed his terrorist ways and embrace a moderate and internationally acceptable path.
Over the ensuing months, not only have the EU and European states embraced him, but also the U.S. During President Trump’s recent travel to Saudi Arabia, MBS facilitated a meeting between the U.S. and Syrian leader , albeit with a number of contingencies for sanction relief. These included the U.S. demanding all foreign militants to leave Syria, deporting individuals identified as Palestinian terrorists, and assisting the U.S. in preventing the resurgence of ISIS.
Another condition had been for Syria to sign up to the Abraham Accords, however, Sharaa explained that was impossible for him at the present time given the fact Israel has essentially invaded large parts of Syria and put conditions on Sharaa’s government.
This issue, for Sharaa, needed to be addressed and resolved before he/Syria could even consider entering into the Abraham Accords. The U.S. side accepted this with the contingency that Sharaa would consider this request seriously in the near term – something that was emphasized by President Trump.
And for his part, Sharaa has been following through with the conditions.
- Leaders of Iranian-backed Palestinian terror groups in Syria – to include the PFLP-GC and Islamic Jihad – have left the country, although not all; i.e. Hamas.
- Hamas’ presence has been limited since the start of the Syrian civil war when its relationship with Assad deteriorated given the Islamic group supported the anti-regime rebels.
- Members of these groups also handed over their heavy weapons in their headquarters or with their cadres to the Syrian authorities, who also received lists of names of faction members possessing individual weapons and demanded those arms also be turned over.
- In Yarmouk, a Palestinian refugee camp in the Damascus suburbs, factional banners displayed at the entrance were gone and party buildings were closed and unguarded. Factional premises elsewhere in Damascus were also closed.
What is clear is for Sharaa, gaining international legitimacy – particularly from the U.S. – is worth just about any price. He appears, so far, to be sincere in his statements espousing a willingness to moderate his positions and embrace bringing Syria into the international community.
However, analysts are still not convinced.
For them, this transformation has been a bit too much too fast, and solely focused on Sharaa, vice many of those he has appointed to senior positions in the government. Not only did Sharaa change his name (he was known as Abu Muhammad al-Jolani – meaning Abu Muhammad from the Golan Heights), but he also changed his clothes, language/personality, and even would bring his wife (Latifa al-Droubi) out for photo ops – something no extreme Islamic/Jihadi leader would ever conscience.
For those who have studied his leadership within al-Qaida and since coming to power in Syria, they point out he is manipulatively intelligent but socially introverted. While charming and pleasant in person, he only views allies as extensions of his agenda and goals – as well as relations that can be easily and quickly discarded once their utility to him has ended.
In reviewing his government appointments, most – at least at the outset – were hardcore HTS/al-Qaida leaders. When the response from the international community was not supportive due to these appointments, he made changes – placing a Christian woman to head the Ministry of Social Affairs and Labor (Hind Kabawat); appointing an Assad holdover to be Minister of Economy (Yaarub Bader); and installing a Kurd to head the Ministry of Education.
And while these were seen as positive steps, for those ministries that matter from a religious/Islamic perspective, the leaders remain ardent HTS/al-Qaida supporters.
- The Minister of Justice – Shadi al-Waisi – is know he be hard core. When he became minister, Waisi initially banned all women judges; something Sharaa had to countermand due to public outcries.
- Previously, Waisi was in Idlib doling out his own brand of justice – which included holding impromptu trials in the streets of women he claimed to be prostitutes or acting against Islam. There are at least 24 videos of these trials followed by him personally executing these women.
- Another close advisor to Sharaa is Abu Hassan al-Hamwi, who is the new Minister of Defense. Hamwi led the military campaign that led to the overthrow of Assad. In this process he not only wiped out an entire HTS division to maintain control, but he also shored up the military’s ranks with foreign fighters.
- The HTS fighting force prior to taking control consisted of more than 30,000 men. Its structure was highly organized along traditional models – having specialized units (armor, infantry, artillery, and drones), as well as an academy.
- Since coming to power, Hamwi has integrated Assad defectors into its ranks, as well as having incorporated more than 7,500 foreign fighters. They include individuals from Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Bosnia, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Chechnya, Dagestan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, UK, France, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Canada.
Other steps taken by his government have also given analysts pause, thinking Sharaa is not the “changed leader” which many have either embraced or are counting on:
- School Curriculum: Sharaa’s government has incorporated in the school curriculum an understanding that Islam is at odds with “people who have gone astray.” These include Christians and Jews. These terms and focus have their roots a fatwa by former al-Qaida leader/founder Usama bin Ladin.
- Women’s Role: Also, within the school curriculum, women of history – irrespective of their location – have been declared to be fictional characters and are not taught to students, nor allowed to be presented in any manner outside of schools.
Interestingly, ISIS, which is at odds with Sharaa and the HTS, is becoming active in attempting to undermine both.
Recently ISIS recirculated an earlier issue of its Rumiyeh magazine which discusses how “the West created and supported HTS.” ISIS’ goal is to show how it is in the right and the only true Islamic organization since HTS and Sharaa are willing to work with the West.
As such, analysts explain that while it appears Sharaa is sincere given his willingness to modify his message and be open to conditions, they believe this will be a temporary situation or will be used to provide the West with justification to lift sanctions to gain support (political and financial) and engage in business in Syria to rebuild the country.
For Sharaa, his situation, while strong, is not certain. There continues to be indicators that a civil war is in the offing. In order to stave off this and gain support from the street, Sharaa has engaged in a fast-paced effort to garner international support – with the meeting with Trump being the most significant to date.
For regional leaders such as MBS, stability in Syria is of paramount importance to his broader goals and plans. Not only does MBS want to be seen as the leader of the region – and bringing Syria and the U.S. helps in that regard – but also facilitating regional stability in Syria would encourage investment in his mega projects.
Regardless, the most challenging issue for Sharaa will be if/how he is able to come to an agreement with Israel.
Israel and Netanyahu do not trust Sharaa – at all. They continue to believe his current persona is false and only meant to realize concessions from the West to enhance his standing and legitimize his rule with the Syrian street. While Israel never trusted Assad, they believed they knew him and his father well enough that they might have been able to work towards an agreement. With Sharaa, that type of understanding does not exist, and is unlikely to be satiated with the steps the Syrian leader has taken to date.
Analysts note this is why Israel remains committed to having an active IDF presence throughout Syria, as well as continuing to make demands on Sharaa that his forces cannot be active in much of his country. Analysts assess it is unlikely Israel will withdraw from these locations readily. While Sharaa signing the Abraham Accords would assist in this regard, there is no guarantee he will be able to survive – what Israel believes – is an inevitable civil war that will take place.
Also, analysts continue to believe Israel is setting the stage to suggest Southern Syria should become the homeland for the Palestinian people – leveraging President Trump’s call for all Gazans to be removed from Gaza; something likely to extend to the West Bank as well.
China and the trade war – how are thing going so far?: While somewhat a surprise to analysts, China’s economy has remained remarkably resilient in the face of U.S. tariffs.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics recently noted that through April:
- Industrial value-added (IVA) grew by 6.1% y/y, down from 7.7% growth in March
- Fixed asset investment (FAI) grew by 3.5% y/y, down from 4.3% previously
- Retail sales of consumer goods grew 5.1% y/y, down from 5.9%
- Retail sales of services grew 5.4% y/y, up from 5.2%
Analysts noted the IVA is incredibly strong given Chinese exporters faced a 145% tariff on goods sold to the U.S. That said, growth is losing momentum.
- On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, IVA only grew by 0.2%, down from 0.6% and 0.4% m/m growth in February and March, respectively.
The slowdown in FAI growth from March was partially driven by falling real estate investment, which dropped 11.3% y/y in April, accelerating from March’s 10.0% decline.
- Excluding the real estate sector, FAI grew by a significant amount – 7.3% y/y in April.
Meanwhile, despite the slower growth in retail sales of consumer goods, China’s overall consumption picture looks reasonably robust.
- April saw the second-fastest y/y growth rate in consumer goods retail sales in 14 months.
- Meanwhile, growth in service retail sales has accelerated for three consecutive months.
Overall, analysts noted that except for the real estate sector, China’s economy continues to consolidate.
- The resilience of both the export sector and domestic consumer sentiment in the face of last month’s crushing U.S. trade tariffs will give Beijing confidence it can hit this year’s 5% growth target – trade war and all.
How China will likely manage a trade war?
With this in mind, it is worthwhile to assess how China intends to likely manage a U.S. trade war – assuming the pause does not continue and/or China’s level of concern with the U.S. moving forward leads it to take active measures meant to counter the uncertainty Trump has introduced
In this regard, analysts have looked to statements by Chinese academic Huang Hanquan for insight. Huang is worth paying attention to because of the following:
- He heads the Academy of Macroeconomic Research, which advises the macro planner (National Development and Reform Commission).
- In October, he briefed Premier Li Qiang and the vice premiers on coordinating policies to support growth.
Huang emphasized the need to stimulate domestic consumption to cushion the impact of trade shocks, urging the government to expand subsidies in two main directions:
- Targeted goods and services, including equipment for the elderly – like health monitors and wheelchairs – and services such as tourism, film and entertainment, domestic help, and education and tutoring services.
- Support for low-income households, including vouchers for essentials like food and daily necessities.
To fund these measures, Huang proposes issuing more ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, beyond the $180.5 billion already allocated for 2025.
Analysts point out that with demand for subsidized durable goods like electronics and appliances expected to wane, the government is likely to shift toward subsidizing service consumption, which tends to be recurring and thus more sustainable.
And with local financial resources tight, the central government is also ready to step up. But the government will calibrate support based on its perception of economic weakness. For now, the economy’s stronger-than-expected resilience has given policymakers some breathing room.
How EU tariffs on low-cost items will impact China
However, analysts point out that U.S. steps to tariff low-cost items entering the country from China have caught the attention of the EU – which is considering a similar tact. This is expected to impact Chinese e-commerce retailers.
Specifically, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič proposed a EUR 2 fee on small packages shipping directly to EU consumers, most of which come from China.
- Until now, packages worth less than EUR 150 were exempt from customs fees.
- Packages shipped to warehouses rather than directly to consumers will face a lower fee of EUR 0.50.
This will certainly have an impact as China shipped 4.2 billion small packages to the EU in 2024 – which is 91% of the region’s total. And given Chinese e-commerce companies’ thin margins, analysts note even the EU’s relatively light fees will weaken their competitive edge. Should other G7 economies impose similar fees, the cumulative cost pressure will significantly strain Chinese e-commerce companies’ profitability.
The threats facing us now: According to senior analysts, the threats currently facing the West are more complex and more interconnected than they have witnessed in any other time in recent history. For not only is there a rejuvenation of the traditional terrorist threat, but also it is manifest in varieties that span other motivators and age groups.
Islamic Extremism
The most significant threat continues to be that presented by Islamic extremist groups.
These “classic terrorists” – who belong to groups such as al-Qaida (AQ) and ISIS across various continents and nations – continue to pose a real threat and are working to not only plan operations but build out their capabilities and capacities, and enlisting supporters.
Analysts note that while this continues to be significant, it is not as grim as it was in 2015 (in Syria), and 2005/2002 (from AQ). However, the resurgence of ISIS in Syria/Iraq, and the expansion of other groups across the Sahel, is highly concerning for the mid/long term.
And while these groups do present a formidable presence on the ground, analysts are more concerned with their influence online.
- Previously online platforms, apps, and other methods had been solely used to facilitate communications within these groups.
- However, at present this has shifted – providing groups with a secure and difficult to access means by which they can recruit new members, train them, and direct them to conduct operations – either knowingly or unknowingly of the groups’ affiliation.
This has essentially led to a type of terrorism known as “self-initiated terrorism” – whereby groups are able to exploit societal pressures to drive their own agendas in ways where they can do so in a nonattributable manner. This also allows the groups to recruit from a broader spectrum of society while realizing their goals and enhancing their reputations/standing.
While groups are open to recruiting individuals of any age, this methodology has been well suited for the targeting of individuals under 18 years of age.
- It was noted that in the UK more than 20% of CT arrests and more than 15% of CT investigations involve individuals under the age of 18.
And it is not only Islamic extremist groups, but also extreme right-wing advocates and neo-Nazis who are leveraging the same platforms and methods.
This leads to a much higher level of random volatility across society; overlapping national security concerns with societal pressures in a way heretofore not observed by analysts. And in many cases mental health issues are also playing a role.
In the case of the traditional groups, not only are they leveraging these platforms in new ways, but they have also learned from previous mistakes to adjust their approaches.
It has been noted that groups such as AQ – which had been known to be predictable and organized, are now acting in a more random and emotional manner. This new approach, while still ideologically fueled, is often less sophisticated – making it harder to identify in the planning stages.
The Use of Technology
Further complicating things is the intersection of available technology and terrorist goals. Analysts note the ease in which 3D printers, drones, and AI can be procured has empowered groups in ways not truly understood. And this is not only for law enforcement, but also the extremists themselves. It is expected the types and nature of attacks they undertake will evolve as extremists become more adept at using/exploiting such tools.
State Sponsored Attacks
The other area of growing concern resides with state-sponsored terrorist attacks.
Analysts note the last 30 years have been a relative “holiday of peace” for the West and law enforcement. While there were some nations engaged in sponsoring such activities, in general, it was limited. However, the projection for the 2020s is not trending well.
Much of this is expected to be driven by the resurgence of the great power competition, with the range of threats increasing markedly – along with a desire to do so in a nonattributable manner.
In particular, concerns are spiking around the use of cyber-attacks and other methods.
Countries such as Russia and Iran are already recruiting criminals to do their dirty work – sabotage, kidnapping, assassination, attacks, and the targeting of infrastructure (both private and governmental). And much of this is taking place online – which further raises the difficulty in attribution.
And this is not limited to the traditional targets and criminals. Nation-states are also looking to leverage far-right groups and use online presences to fuel threats and anger across society.
In many cases countries like Russia, China and Iran have had years to practice – as was highlighted in their success in compromising the previous three U.S. presidential elections and others across the globe.
While law enforcement believe they can leverage their experience in the CT realm to help them address these growing concerns, they also note that having enough resources will be the biggest challenge. Tackling traditional terrorist threats, with added challenges from state-sponsored efforts, will make the process all the more difficult.