Every week, retail leaders are railing about theft. Organized retail crime! Shoplifters! Flash mobs! Politicians who “don’t care”! And don’t get me wrong — theft is a growing and painful problem that absolutely demands our attention.
But while we’ve been laser-focused on fighting the enemy outside the walls…
we may be ignoring the one inside.
Here’s a not-so-fun fact:
In most retailers, internal process failures and operational friction cost more than theft ever will.
Yet we obsess over adding more cameras, more guards, more locking up product — decisions that make customers miserable and employees frustrated. We pour millions into prevention and then scratch our heads when shrink barely budges.
Maybe the problem isn’t that we’re fighting a war.
Maybe it’s that we’re fighting the wrong one.
The War on Theft vs. The War on Waste
We love chasing bad guys — it’s in our DNA as AP/LP professionals. But here’s the question no one wants to ask:
What percentage of your shrink is actually caused by external theft?
Not the “we believe it’s ORC” assumption.
Not the “the store team must be doing something wrong” excuse.
Actual, measurable, attributable loss.
In many organizations, once you strip away unknown shrink, paperwork gaps, poor controls, sloppy receiving, inaccurate inventories, and vendor errors… external theft becomes a much smaller slice of the pie than the media — and some LP presentations — would have us believe.
We’re putting SWAT-level resources against one threat
while putting much less effort toward the death-by-a-thousand-cuts scenario happening quietly every day.
We Can’t Arrest Our Way Out of This
Here’s the uncomfortable truth:
Theft is becoming more brazen faster than we are becoming more effective.
We can lock up everything…
until customers give up and go elsewhere.
We can chase every ORC ring…
until prosecutors shrug and let them walk.
We can keep demanding more budget…
until executives demand results we fail to deliver.
Meanwhile, operations leaders are begging for help with:
• Inventory accuracy
• Out-of-stocks that kill sales
• Complex processes that lead to errors
• Labor stretched so thin that controls crumble
• Technology that creates more steps, not fewer
Those aren’t security issues.
They’re business issues.
Which means they’re exactly where AP/LP should be — if we want true influence.
The Hard Pivot Our Industry Needs
What if the future of AP/LP looks less like law enforcement
and more like business transformation?
What if our success metrics expanded from
“apprehensions and shrink reduction” to “profit protection, operational efficiency, and customer experience”?
What if our best partnerships weren’t with police departments…
but with supply chain, store operations, merchandising, finance, and IT?
If we want a bigger seat at the table — or any seat at all — we must prove that we protect more than merchandise.
We protect the business itself.
The Enemy Within
Here’s my thesis:
Our greatest shrink threat isn’t external criminals.
It’s internal complacency.
• The outdated playbooks we won’t challenge
• The risk-averse mindset that stifles innovation
• The resistance to learning the business beyond our own silo
• The belief that “more security” is always the right answer
• The comfort in reacting instead of transforming
The world changed. Retail changed. Criminals changed.
But too many AP/LP organizations… didn’t.
So, here’s the real choice:
Do we keep fighting the war we feel comfortable with?
Or start fighting the war that actually matters?
If you think AP/LP professionals should commit the majority of their resources toward theft prevention — that ORC is the defining threat and operational improvement is someone else’s job, then please send a comment helping us to understand your viewpoint. Perhaps there is something I am missing. Perhaps I am dead wrong. If that is the case, then please feel free to Change My Mind.
Send me your comments here.
If your comment gets listed in the TalkLPnews Retail Rundown for the remainder of the week, it will be listed as “anonymous.”
David E. George, CFE, CFI, is the Managing Partner of Calibration Group, Inc., and of its subsidiary, TalkLPnews. Previously, David served as Vice President of Asset Protection for Dollar General Stores, a company with more than 20,000 stores in 48 states. While serving Dollar General, David was responsible for the Asset Protection field team, the Asset Protection corporate team, the Shrink Improvement team, and the Shrink Analytics team.
Prior to Dollar General, David held the Vice President of Asset Protection position with Harris Teeter Supermarkets, Inc., a regional chain based in Charlotte, NC. He served Harris Teeter for more than 14 years and has had previous loss prevention leadership roles with Kmart Supercenters.
For more information about Calibration Group, visit www.calibrationgroup.com.
